Eloquence

Climate Change and Delaware

Delaware is part of a region known as the Delaware Estuary that includes New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Estuaries are bodies of water where salt water from the ocean mixes with the fresh water flowing off the land. In this region, the Delaware Estuary, Chesapeake Bay, and group of estuaries called the Inland Bay feed freshwater to the Atlantic Ocean. The Delaware Estuary includes millions of people, five large oil refineries, a large freshwater port, essential fisheries, and a dynamic ecosystem. Delaware has 381 miles of shoreline including barrier beaches, inland bays, productive estuaries, and marshes. The shoreline already faces erosion problems and many of the coastal beach areas have sand rejuvenation programs in place. With climate change and the impending sea level rise, Delaware's coastal areas will be at high risk for flooding, erosion, saltwater contamination, and loss of wetlands. ¹⁹

Delaware drains to the Delaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay. The state has a shallow groundwater supply and some regions have contaminated groundwater due to industrial activity. Increased precipitation, without making necessary infrastructural improvements, could cause further contamination of the groundwater supply due to runoff near industrial sites. ²⁰

Delaware is part of the Mid-Atlantic region that includes Washington, D.C., Maryland, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. The predicted climatic changes for the Mid-Atlantic region are similar to other regions of the same latitude across the globe. First, there will be temperature increases, especially in the summer months. According to the models, Delaware will have an average temperature increase of 3 degrees; it would increase by 1-7 degrees in the spring and 2-9 throughout the rest of the year. Dover, Delaware's capital, will experience a temperature increase of about 1.7 degrees by the end of the century. ²¹ The warmer temperatures will probably result in Delaware seeming to have the climate of a state further south along the Atlantic coast. Warmer winters mean a longer growing season for the chief crops of corn, soybeans and wheat. The change in plant life would affect the animals that can survive in our state including the Great Blue Heron, Osprey, Gray Squirrel, deer, and Red Fox. Human behavior would also change in response to the warmer temperatures, the demand for heating and cooling would likely change. With hotter summers there would be a greater demand for air conditioning, requiring more electricity. According to the models, there will be an increase in extremely hot days throughout the summer. The extreme heat poses health hazards to DE residents and would impact the economy of the coastal tourism regions as people would not want to spend time outdoors in dangerously high temperatures. A reduction in extremely cold days has also been predicted. ²²

This change in temperature, although warmer winters potentially benefit humans, would impact the species native to Delaware causing possible over infestations or migrations. Climate change could cause an increase in disease-carrying insects as the warmer and wetter temperatures are ideal breeding conditions for some harmful organisms native to the Mid-Atlantic region. Mosquitos potentially carrying malaria or eastern equine encephalitis and ticks potentially carrying Lyme disease could become more prevalent as these species are attracted to warmer and wetter habitats. Algal blooms become more intense due to warmer waters damaging delicate ecosystems of the Atlantic coast and posing a risk to human health as they carry dangerous bacteria such as cholera. ²³

Delaware is expected to have increased precipitation due to the warmer temperatures; in some parts of the state it can be as high as 10% more precipitation as in the past. ²⁴ Higher temperatures will lead to a more active water cycle, especially in terms of evaporation. With more evaporation there will be an increase in the amount of precipitation in the winter months and fewer rainy days in the summer months. During the summer, water will become more scarce and the demand for water will increase as residents use the water for their lawns, pools, and crops. Heavier precipitations will be more frequent which could lead to drainage problems, storm damage, and erosion. Overall, throughout the next fifty years, Delaware residents will be facing more hot, dry days with no precipitation and fewer cool, wet days. ²⁵

All three of Delaware's counties will be affected by sea level rise, but the twenty-four miles of coastline on the Atlantic Ocean will face the most drastic changes. ²⁶ Using moderate estimates of global warming, the sea level rise in Delaware is projected to be about 3.3 feet between now and 2100. Inundation will undermine the utilities, homes, schools and businesses. It is possible that parts of the state would become unusable and people would be forced to relocate. According to the Sea Level Advisory Committee, in Preparing for Tomorrow's High Tide, secondary impacts would include the loss of jobs, loss of community or sense of place, contaminate releases from industrial sites or storage tanks, loss of habitat, and increased need for government services or intervention. ²⁷ The impacts of sea level rise include a decreased tax base as fewer homes and businesses are built in coastal regions, increased cost of maintaining infrastructure, loss of habitats, and loss of community landmarks. ²⁸

The Sea Level Advisory Committee lists three methods for adapting to sea level rise: protection, accommodation, and retreat. Protection strategies would be methods that prevent the rising waters from damaging areas by building dikes, levees, and sea walls. Accommodation involves using an area that has been inundated without building sea walls or other structures. Accommodation involves changing behavior in response to the water levels. Retreat strategies involve the movement or people and structures out of areas that are no longer habitable. ²⁹

Delaware has been making significant progress toward climate change preparation and reduction in CO2 emissions. Delaware is a founding member of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a nine state carbon dioxide budget trading program. This initiative works to cap and reduce CO2 emissions coming from our power plants. According to the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, "In the last round of funding, projects reduced more than 26,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, which is equivalent to taking 5,000 cars off the road or equivalent to the emissions from powering 3,000 homes for one year." 42% of Delaware's CO2 emissions come from the transportation sector, to reduce emissions twelve Northeast and Mid-Atlantic jurisdictions created the Transportation Climate Initiative to develop renewable a clean energy sources with a focus on transportation. This initiative focuses on clean vehicles and fuels, sustainable communities, freight efficiency, and communication technology. Delaware also participates in a program hosted by the U.S. Department of Energy to reduce petroleum usage in the transportation sector through the Clean Cities Program. ³⁰

Throughout the state, regions are being assessed and plans are being developed and refined to prepare for greater amounts of precipitation, stronger storms, and a rising sea level. Work is being done in Delaware's northern county, New Castle County, to protect homes, businesses, and people, and to contain a contaminated site as climatic changes occur. In Kent County, the middle portion of the state, the strategies are mainly focused around the protection of wildlife sites. If current structures fail, large areas would be impacted by flooding. In Sussex County, the region furthest south, evacuation routes are of major concern. Up to 6% of the current evacuation routes could potentially be flooded, flooded roadways can make evacuation inefficient or prevent it entirely. ³¹